I have a rule in my head and you have to find out what the rule is.
2, 4, 6
These three numbers fit the rule in my head.
Your task: Enter another set of 3 numbers to test if they fit my rule. You can try as many times as you need.
About Confirmation Bias
Did you find yourself testing numbers that you expected to fit the rule, rather than testing numbers that might disprove your hypothesis?
This is confirmation bias – our natural tendency to seek information that confirms our existing beliefs rather than testing them rigorously.
The actual rule was: Any three positive whole numbers in strictly increasing order.
Most people initially think the rule is „add 2“ or „equal distances“ because the example was 2, 4, 6. They then test numbers like 8, 10, 12 or 5, 7, 9 – which all confirm their hypothesis but don’t help discover the real rule!
A more effective strategy would be to test numbers that might falsify your hypothesis, such as 1, 2, 3 or 5, 10, 100.
To learn more about how cognitive biases influence decision-making, explore Dr. Franziska Frank’s work on the rules of influencing.
